ibd-distribution-day-monitor

Purpose

Detect IBD-style Distribution Days for major market ETFs (QQQ as Nasdaq proxy, SPY as S&P 500 proxy) and produce a daily market deterioration signal plus a TQQQ/QQQ exposure recommendation. Designed for post-market review.

When to Use

Invoke this skill:

• Daily after the US market close.
• Before increasing TQQQ exposure or rebalancing leveraged positions.
• When evaluating whether an uptrend is becoming vulnerable to a correction.
• As an upstream input to FTD (Follow-Through Day) detection or other market-state frameworks.

Do NOT use this skill to:

• Execute trades or modify orders.
• Generate discretionary market predictions outside of the IBD ruleset.

Inputs

• Symbols (default: QQQ, SPY) and lookback (default 80 trading sessions).
• Optional --as-of YYYY-MM-DD for backtesting against a historical session.
• Strategy context: instrument (TQQQ or QQQ), current exposure %, base trailing stop %.
• FMP API key via --api-key, config.data.api_key, or FMP_API_KEY env var (in that priority order).

Core Rules

A Distribution Day is detected when:

1. Today's close is at least 0.2% below yesterday's close.
2. Today's volume is greater than yesterday's volume.

A Distribution Day is removed from the active count when either:

• More than 25 trading sessions have elapsed since the DD.
• The index has gained 5% from the DD close (using post-DD high by default; configurable to close-source).

Today's DD is never invalidated immediately because there are no post-DD sessions to evaluate the 5% gain against.

Counting Conventions

• d5_count / d15_count / d25_count count active records with age_sessions <= N.
• This means N+1 sessions are inspected (age 0..N inclusive). Reports therefore say "within N elapsed sessions" rather than "直近 N 取引日" to avoid ambiguity.

Risk Classification

Risk	Trigger
NORMAL	d25 <= 2
CAUTION	d25 >= 3
HIGH	d25 >= 5 OR d15 >= 3 OR d5 >= 2
SEVERE	d25 >= 6 OR d15 >= 4 OR (market_below_21ema_or_50ma AND d25 >= 5)

When both QQQ and SPY are loaded, QQQ-weighted overall logic applies (TQQQ-aware): a single SEVERE escalates to SEVERE; QQQ HIGH escalates to overall HIGH; QQQ NORMAL + SPY HIGH still escalates to HIGH (broad-market spillover).

TQQQ Exposure Policy

Risk	Action	Target Exposure	Trailing Stop
NORMAL	HOLD_OR_FOLLOW_BASE_STRATEGY	100%	base
CAUTION	AVOID_NEW_ADDS	75%	min(base, 7%)
HIGH	REDUCE_EXPOSURE	50%	min(base, 5%)
SEVERE	CLOSE_TQQQ_OR_HEDGE	25%	min(base, 3%)

QQQ uses a less aggressive policy (HIGH=75%, SEVERE=50%) since it lacks 3x leverage.

Workflow

1. Load OHLCV for the configured symbols via FMP (get_historical_prices).
2. Validate data quality; record skipped sessions in audit.
3. Rebase via prepare_effective_history so effective_history[0] is the evaluation session.
4. Detect raw Distribution Days; enrich with high_since, invalidation event, and status.
5. Count d5 / d15 / d25 active records.
6. Compute 21EMA and 50SMA filters; flag market_below_21ema_or_50ma (None if data insufficient).
7. Classify each index, then combine using QQQ-weighted policy.
8. Generate portfolio action for the configured instrument.
9. Write JSON + Markdown reports to --output-dir with API keys redacted.

Outputs

Saved to reports/ (or --output-dir):

• ibd_distribution_day_monitor_YYYY-MM-DD_HHMMSS.json
• ibd_distribution_day_monitor_YYYY-MM-DD_HHMMSS.md

JSON is UTF-8 with ensure_ascii=False (Japanese explanations preserved). Sensitive keys (api_key, fmp_api_key, token, etc.) are redacted automatically.

Operating Principles

• Do not override the IBD rule definitions unless config/default.yaml is changed deliberately.
• Always explain which dates contributed to the active count.
• Treat missing or unreliable volume data as a warning (audit_flag), not as a Distribution Day.
• Do not place trades. The portfolio action is a risk-management suggestion, not an execution instruction.

CLI

python3 skills/ibd-distribution-day-monitor/scripts/ibd_monitor.py \
  --symbols QQQ,SPY \
  --lookback-days 80 \
  --instrument TQQQ \
  --current-exposure 100 \
  --base-trailing-stop 10 \
  --output-dir reports/

API Requirements

FMP API key required. Free tier (250 calls/day) is sufficient for daily QQQ + SPY runs.

Related Skills

• ftd-detector: Bottom confirmation via Follow-Through Days (counterpart of this top-side signal).
• market-top-detector: Composite 0-100 top probability score using O'Neil distribution + other components.
• position-sizer: Convert risk-management recommendations into share counts.